The 2018 Oscars Are Over—So Let's Start Talking About 2019

On Sunday night, the Academy Awards ceremony ended on a warm note, handing the final statuette of the night to Guillermo del Toro’s swoon-worthy love story The Shape of Water. The hand-off signaled the official end of the 2017-2018 awards season, capping a run that celebrated films like Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and Get Out. It’s been a beautiful, lengthy, trying, and competitive six-month process spent pitting front-runners against each other and prognosticating all the way until __Jimmy Kimmel__delivered his opening monologue at the Oscars ceremony itself. So: that’s it! We’re free! It’s all over, folks! Time to cry winsomely into a crackling fireplace and reflect on the journey we’ve been on.

Or is it? In an industry where awards season hopefuls make their debuts during the Sundance Film Festival—more than 12 months before the Academy Awards at which they’ll hopefully compete—and where certain films (like Get Out) can sustain a prestige narrative for an entire year, it’s really never too early to start predicting which films will make a splash at next year’s Oscars. Stop groaning; you know we’re all mere peons in the grip of a never-ending awards season. That means it’s time to chin up, settle in, and guess which films are going to be part of the conversation come fall.

As mentioned previously, Sundance is often a hotbed of Oscar hopefuls. While this year didn’t present any obvious entries, there were still plenty of buzzworthy films that could make an impact with voters down the line. Gus Van Sant’sDon’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far on Foot was one such film, earning warm early reviews; the biopic about artist John Callahan stars Joaquin Phoenix, Jonah Hill, and Rooney Mara, a triple axel of awards bait-y talent. Meanwhile, A24 picked up the drama Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham’s directorial debut about a teen girl on the verge of exiting middle school. Vanity Fair’sRichard Lawsonpraised the film for all its tender, humane qualities, zeroing in particularly on young newcomer Elsie Fisher. Maybe she can get some tips on navigating awards season from The Florida Project star and fellow newcomer Brooklynn Prince.

Over in the documentary realm, Morgan Neville’s film Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seems like an early lock; the doc about the life and work of Fred Rogers (Mister Rogers, to all his PBS fans) warmed hearts at Sundance, bruising smile lines into everyone’s faces and racking up generous reviews. Plus, Neville isn’t new to this circuit; he won an Oscar back in 2014 for his musical documentary 20 Feet from Stardom. Expect to see him again, or to cry foul if his film is rejected for more topical material—as at this year’s show, which neglected to nominated apparent early favorite Jane in the feature doc category.

Outside of the festival circuit, Wes Anderson’sIsle of Dogs seems a natural contender. The Oscar-winning filmmaker is a beloved cinematic aesthete, and a regular presence on the scene whenever he’s promoting a film. His upcoming film is a stop-motion dramedy about a group of dogs who have been quarantined on a Japanese island, and it features a stacked cast (Greta Gerwig, Bryan Cranston, Jeff Goldblum, and more). If the reviews are solid, expect an Oscar nod or two to follow, particularly in the best animated film category.

Also in the prestige category of films we haven’t seen yet but have Oscar bait written all over them: Boy Erased, the drama about a young Christian man who goes through gay conversion therapy. Directed by Joel Edgerton, the film stars Oscar nominee Lucas Hedges, as well as Oscar-winners Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe. Also keep your eyes on Beautiful Boy, a father-son drama starring current golden boy Timothée Chalamet and Oscar nominee Steve Carell, produced by Brad Pitt’s Plan B Entertainment. Meanwhile, Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper will likely be stumping hard for their revamped version of A Star Is Born. The past three versions of the film have all been nominated for several Oscars, so history is on their side—as long as the film is good. And if it’s not, there’s always the best original song category. (Justice for “Til It Happens to You!”)

We’re also all but guaranteed to see a few familiar box office hits at next year’s ceremony. Black Panther, which is well on its way to earning $1 billion worldwide, is bound to get nods in the technical categories, at the very least. Superhero movies tend to be ignored by the Academy (Wonder Woman didn’t even notch one nomination this year), but there could be hope for bigger things for this particular film, which has earned an uproarious amount of praise. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that it co-stars Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o, who attended this year’s ceremony with co-stars Danai Gurira and Winston Duke (let this video momentarily bless your life). Perhaps a best director nod for Ryan Coogler is in the cards (despite his reportedly distant relationship with the Academy)? Or an adapted screenplay nomination, at the very least? Logan, the final film in the Wolverine saga, broke the comic book curse this year by earning a screenplay nod in this category, so anything’s possible.

And even though it hasn’t been released yet, Solo: A Star Wars Story is also bound to get some requisite technical nods, plus a nod for composer John Williams. The Oscars and Star Wars have had a semi-strained relationship for the last few decades; Star Wars movies still get technical nods with some frequency (33 in total), but they’ll rarely ever win. The very first film won six Oscars, but none of the others have come close to that haul—despite the franchise’s renaissance starting with 2015’s The Force Awakens. Solo might not be the film that changes that, but the rules change when your movie stars Donald Glover playing a young Lando Calrissian. This charmer might be the franchise’s new awards season hope.

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Yohana DestaYohana Desta is a Hollywood writer for VanityFair.com.

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